SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Nepal's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals251
# data points118
# variables4
chi-square 5.28092092
reduced chi-square 0.04632387
Akaike info crit.-358.576927
Bayesian info crit.-347.494188

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 7.04595288 4.54691545 (64.53%) 146.25 -inf inf True
center 116.999987 1.90970332 (1.63%) 116 -inf inf True
sigma 2.48909721 0.58809905 (23.63%) 19.5 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 2.9565e-07 0.05134701 (17367492.50%) 19.5 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 2.48909751 0.56659000 (22.76%) 39.0 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 1.80209608 1.03538823 (57.45%) 2.3873241111109027 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

centersigma_r-1.0000
amplitudecenter0.9823
amplitudesigma_r-0.9823
amplitudesigma0.5396
centersigma0.4520
sigmasigma_r-0.4520

Observation

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Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi