SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Nepal's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals1664
# data points118
# variables5
chi-square 55405.2314
reduced chi-square 490.311782
Akaike info crit. 735.905871
Bayesian info crit. 749.759295

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 0.58816248 0.09230079 (15.69%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -14.5662800 4.74219984 (32.56%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 8.4425e+09 2.7073e+10 (320.68%) 2098 -inf inf True
step_center 324.234848 47.2292579 (14.57%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 57.8752421 6.23932178 (10.78%) 16.714285714285715 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_center0.9980
step_centerstep_sigma0.9975
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9912
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8674
line_slopestep_sigma-0.1805
line_slopestep_center-0.1394
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.1030

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
01-15
11-14
21-13
31-13
41-12
51-12
61-11
71-10
81-10
91-9
101-9
111-8
121-8
131-7
141-6
151-6
161-5
171-5
181-4
191-3
201-3
211-2
221-2
231-1
241-0
2510
2611
2711
2812
2912
3013
3114
3214
3315
3415
3516
3617
3717
3818
3918
4019
41110
42110
43111
44111
45112
46213
47313
48314
49314
50315
51516
52516
53517
54517
55518
56519
57619
58620
59921
60921
61922
62923
63923
64924
65925
661225
671426
681627
691628
701629
713030
723131
733132
743133
754234
764536
774837
784939
794941
805243
815245
825447
835750
845753
855957
865961
877565
888270
898276
909982
9110190
9210198
93109108
94120119
95134131
96217145
97219161
98258180
99276201
100291225
101304252
102375283
103402318
104444358
105487404
106548456
107584516
108603583
109682660
110772747
111886846
1121042958
11312121085
11414011230
11515721393
11617981578
11720991788
118nan2025
119nan2294
120nan2597
121nan2939
122nan3326
123nan3762
124nan4254

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi