SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Nepal's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals69
# data points118
# variables4
chi-square 14299.4687
reduced chi-square 125.433936
Akaike info crit. 574.080579
Bayesian info crit. 585.163317

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 16898.4044 12327.4275 (72.95%) 2257.5 -inf inf True
center 127.385147 4.24223651 (3.33%) 115.5 -inf inf True
sigma 5.21130523 0.76071017 (14.60%) 2.5 0.00000000 inf True
skew 0.11316872 0.08237448 (72.79%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 5.21130523 0.76071017 (14.60%) 2.5 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudecenter0.9973
sigmaskew0.9433
amplitudeskew0.8897
centerskew0.8752
centersigma0.7912
amplitudesigma0.7885

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
010
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5120
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5931
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6201
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6631
6721
6822
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7002
71142
7212
7302
7402
75113
7633
7733
7813
7904
8034
8104
8225
8335
8405
8526
8606
87167
8877
8908
90179
9129
92010
93811
941112
951414
968315
97216
983918
991820
1001522
1011325
1027128
1032731
1044235
1054340
1066145
1073651
1081959
1097968
1109079
11111492
112156107
113170126
114189149
115171176
116226207
117301243
118nan284
119nan329
120nan377
121nan429
122nan480
123nan531
124nan577

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi