SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Mexico's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals101
# data points88
# variables5
chi-square 483288.468
reduced chi-square 5822.75263
Akaike info crit. 767.770832
Bayesian info crit. 780.157516

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -5.07547150 2.49518671 (49.16%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 7.51094715 28.2158832 (375.66%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 30131.2441 3237.34046 (10.74%) 10637 -inf inf True
step_center 97.2644656 3.00442711 (3.09%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 40.1194738 2.10374168 (5.24%) 12.428571428571429 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_center0.9976
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9890
step_centerstep_sigma0.9827
line_slopestep_sigma-0.8615
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.8054
line_slopeline_intercept-0.7859
line_slopestep_center-0.7677
line_interceptstep_sigma0.4711
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.4241
line_interceptstep_center0.3753

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
0017
1013
209
306
402
50-1
60-3
70-6
80-8
90-10
100-12
110-13
120-13
132-14
142-13
152-12
164-11
175-8
185-5
198-2
20123
21169
222016
232824
242933
253744
265056
276070
287986
2994103
30125122
31141144
32174168
33194194
34233223
35273254
36296289
37332327
38406368
39449412
40486460
41546512
42650569
43686629
44712695
45857765
46970840
471069920
4812211006
4913051098
5013511195
5114341299
5215691410
5317321527
5418591650
5519721781
5620611920
5721542065
5822712219
5925072381
6027042550
6129612728
6231602914
6333533109
6434653313
6535733525
6639263747
6742203977
6844774216
6947674465
7050454722
7151774988
7253325264
7356665548
7460905842
7565106144
7669896454
7771796773
7873947101
7976337436
8081347779
8185978130
8290448488
8394158853
8497799225
8599309602
86101679986
871063710375
88nan10770
89nan11168
90nan11571
91nan11978
92nan12388
93nan12801
94nan13216

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi