SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Mexico's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_gaussian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals103
# data points88
# variables4
chi-square 333318.823
reduced chi-square 3968.08122
Akaike info crit. 733.077577
Bayesian info crit. 742.986924

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
amplitude 13598.2523 6765.20078 (49.75%) 19539.0 -inf inf True
center 94.8415197 12.1855018 (12.85%) 75.75 -inf inf True
sigma 25.9273764 4.23405398 (16.33%) 13.0 0.00000000 inf True
gamma -3.45963784 7.15967731 (206.95%) 0.0 -inf inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudecenter0.9938
amplitudegamma0.9783
centergamma0.9654
centersigma0.9152
amplitudesigma0.8981
sigmagamma0.8078

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
601
701
802
902
1002
1102
1203
1323
1403
1504
1624
1715
1805
1936
2046
2147
2248
2389
24110
25811
261312
271014
281915
291517
303118
311620
323322
332024
343927
354029
362332
373635
387438
394341
403745
416048
4210452
433657
442661
4514566
4611371
479976
4815282
498488
504694
5183100
52135107
53163114
54127121
55113129
5689136
5793144
58117152
59236161
60197170
61257179
62199188
63193197
64112206
65108216
66353225
67294235
68257245
69290255
70278264
71132274
72155284
73334293
74424302
75420311
76479319
77190327
78215335
79239341
80501347
81463351
82447354
83371356
84364355
85151353
86237348
87470341
88nan331
89nan319
90nan305
91nan288
92nan269
93nan249
94nan228

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi