SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Mexico's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals112
# data points88
# variables5
chi-square 7158292.30
reduced chi-square 86244.4856
Akaike info crit. 1004.96718
Bayesian info crit. 1017.35386

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -68.2821682 14.2307047 (20.84%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -96.5767813 97.7871027 (101.25%) 2 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 364827.099 26837.9486 (7.36%) 97324 -inf inf True
step_center 107.562876 2.40974996 (2.24%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 48.5216807 1.53732677 (3.17%) 12.428571428571429 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_center0.9992
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9918
step_centerstep_sigma0.9892
line_slopestep_sigma-0.9034
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.8556
line_slopestep_center-0.8383
line_slopeline_intercept-0.4993
line_interceptstep_sigma0.1737
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.1265

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
02217
14181
25149
37119
41194
51672
62655
74142
85334
98231
109334
1111844
1216460
1320383
14251113
15316152
16367200
17405257
18475324
19585402
20717491
21848592
22993707
231094835
241215977
2513781135
2615101310
2716881502
2818901712
2921431942
3024392193
3127852465
3231812760
3334413080
3438443424
3542193795
3646614194
3750144623
3853995082
3958475573
4062976098
4168756658
4274977254
4382617888
4487728562
4595019278
461054410035
471163310838
481287211686
491384212582
501467713527
511552914523
521675215571
531779916673
541922417830
552073919045
562208820318
572347121652
582490523046
592602524504
602763426026
612961627614
623152229268
633346030990
643502232782
653632734643
663832436576
674018638580
684259540657
694503242808
704714445032
714921947331
725163349704
735434652152
745659454676
755956757274
766252759947
776585662694
786862065515
797110568410
807456071378
817802374418
828140077528
838462780709
848751283957
859066487273
869343590655
879732694100
88nan97607
89nan101174
90nan104799
91nan108479
92nan112212
93nan115996
94nan119828

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi