SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Italy's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals1507
# data points125
# variables10
chi-square 9595153.83
reduced chi-square 83436.1202
Akaike info crit. 1426.05687
Bayesian info crit. 1454.34001

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 3.0865e-06 3.1791620436861526e-06 0.00000000 1.0000e-05 True
theta 0.15996832 0.15878049624770857 0.10000000 0.16000000 True
p 0.02770704 0.028396159553418863 1.0000e-03 0.33000000 True
sigma 0.14285714 0.14285714285714285 0.00000000 inf False
rho 0.12000000 0.12 0.00000000 inf False
epsilonA 0.02683481 0.032157244430873304 0.00000000 0.20000000 True
epsilonI 0.10029002 0.10077493179066466 0.10000000 0.40000000 True
lambda0 0.00800000 0.008 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.10000230 0.10000000493929137 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
gammaI 0.10000000 0.1 0.00000000 inf False
gammaD 0.12017958 0.1037726489835548 0.10000000 0.15000000 True
cD 1.40000000 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
dD 0.02014962 0.017398789511306315 -inf inf False gammaD*0.1435882063250755/(1-0.1435882063250755)
dI 0.02820946 0.02435830531582884 -inf inf False cD*dD
delta 1.0153e-12 1.1118883591620943e-13 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
S0 1885642.83 1761243.6214755212 280218.000 60431283.0 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 140109.000 140109.0 0.00000000 inf False
E0 9.00000000 9.0 0.00000000 inf False
A0 3.60000000 3.5999999999999996 0.00000000 inf False
I0 5.40000000 5.4 0.00000000 inf False
day 125.000000 125 0.00000000 inf False
D0 3.00000000 3 0.00000000 inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 0.00000000 inf False
pop 60431283.0 60431283 0.00000000 inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
001
101
201
301
401
501
602
702
802
902
1003
1103
1204
1304
1405
1507
1608
17011
18013
19017
20021
21026
22033
23241
24252
25664
261180
271299
2817121
2921149
3029183
3135223
3252271
3380328
34107396
35148477
36197571
37233681
38366809
39464958
406311129
418271325
4210161547
4312681799
4414412083
4518112399
4621582750
4725053136
4829783559
4934074018
5040324513
5148275044
5254765609
5360776205
5468206831
5575057484
5681658161
5791368858
58100239573
591078110301
601159111038
611243011782
621315712529
631391713276
641468114020
651536214758
661588915487
671652516205
681712916911
691766917602
701828118277
711885118934
721947019574
731990120195
742046520796
752106921377
762164721939
772217222480
782274723001
792322723503
802366023985
812411424447
822464824892
832508525317
842554925726
852596926117
862638426491
872664426850
882697727193
892735927522
902768227836
912796728138
922823628426
932871028702
942888428967
952907929220
962931529463
972968429696
982995829919
993020130133
1003039530339
1013056030537
1023073930727
1033091130909
1043110631085
1053136831254
1063161031417
1073176331574
1083190831726
1093200731872
1103216932013
1113233032149
1123248632281
1133261632409
1143273532533
1153278532652
1163287732769
1173295532881
1183307232991
1193314233097
1203322933200
1213334033301
1223341533399
1233347533494
1243353033587
125nan33677
126nan33765
127nan33852
128nan33936
129nan34018
130nan34098
131nan34177
132nan34254
133nan34329
134nan34403
135nan34476
136nan34546
137nan34616
138nan34684

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi