SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Italy's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals62
# data points125
# variables5
chi-square 63016459.9
reduced chi-square 525137.166
Akaike info crit. 1651.32410
Bayesian info crit. 1665.46567

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -37.7776016 19.7255198 (52.21%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept -11.3301852 268.679896 (2371.36%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 37054.1694 2204.67331 (5.95%) 33530 -inf inf True
step_center 68.8297475 0.26708884 (0.39%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 28.7400350 1.30811656 (4.55%) 17.714285714285715 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9934
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9489
line_slopestep_sigma-0.9210
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8501
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.8013
line_interceptstep_sigma0.6711
line_slopestep_center0.2466
step_amplitudestep_center-0.2234
step_centerstep_sigma-0.1739

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
002
10-33
20-68
30-102
40-136
50-169
60-201
70-232
80-262
90-291
100-319
110-345
120-369
130-391
140-411
150-428
160-443
170-454
180-462
190-466
200-465
210-460
220-450
232-433
242-411
256-381
2611-344
2712-298
2817-244
2921-180
3029-106
3135-21
325276
3380185
34107308
35148445
36197596
37233764
38366948
394641149
406311368
418271605
4210161862
4312682139
4414412435
4518112753
4621583092
4725053452
4829783833
4934074236
5040324661
5148275108
5254765576
5360776065
5468206574
5575057104
5681657652
5791368220
58100238805
59107819406
601159110023
611243010654
621315711298
631391711953
641468112618
651536213291
661588913971
671652514655
681712915343
691766916033
701828116722
711885117409
721947018092
731990118770
742046519441
752106920103
762164720754
772217221394
782274722020
792322722632
802366023228
812411423807
822464824368
832508524910
842554925433
852596925935
862638426417
872664426878
882697727317
892735927734
902768228130
912796728505
922823628857
932871029189
942888429499
952907929789
962931530058
972968430309
982995830540
993020130753
1003039530948
1013056031126
1023073931288
1033091131435
1043110631567
1053136831685
1063161031790
1073176331883
1083190831964
1093200732034
1103216932095
1113233032146
1123248632188
1133261632223
1143273532250
1153278532271
1163287732285
1173295532294
1183307232297
1193314232296
1203322932291
1213334032282
1223341532269
1233347532254
1243353032236
125nan32215
126nan32192
127nan32167
128nan32141
129nan32113
130nan32083
131nan32053

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi