SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Italy's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals42
# data points125
# variables4
chi-square 380777.869
reduced chi-square 3146.92454
Akaike info crit. 1010.70722
Bayesian info crit. 1022.02047

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 40185.7931 758.481112 (1.89%) 46608.0 -inf inf True
center 48.0901975 0.38823701 (0.81%) 65.3103448275862 -inf inf True
sigma 19.2987881 0.64142019 (3.32%) 16.0 0.00000000 inf True
skew 2.97685990 0.31338417 (10.53%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 19.2987881 0.64142019 (3.32%) 16.0 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

sigmaskew0.6928
centersigma-0.6709
amplitudesigma0.6404
centerskew-0.5285
amplitudecenter-0.4018
amplitudeskew0.2395

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
000
100
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300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2320
2400
2540
2650
2710
2851
2941
3082
3163
32175
33288
342711
354117
364925
373635
3813349
399866
4016788
41196115
42189148
43252185
44173227
45370274
46347324
47347376
48473430
49429483
50625534
51795582
52649626
53601664
54743696
55685722
56660742
57971757
58887765
59758769
60810769
61839765
62727758
63760748
64764737
65681724
66527710
67636695
68604680
69540664
70612648
71570631
72619614
73431597
74564580
75604563
76578546
77525529
78575512
79480496
80433480
81454463
82534448
83437432
84464417
85420402
86415388
87260373
88333360
89382346
90323333
91285321
92269309
93474297
94174286
95195275
96236264
97369254
98274245
99243235
100194227
101165218
102179210
103172202
104195195
105262187
106242181
107153174
108145168
10999162
110162156
111161151
112156146
113130141
114119136
11550131
11692127
11778123
118117119
11970115
12087112
121111108
12275105
12360102
1245599
125nan96
126nan93
127nan90
128nan88
129nan85
130nan83
131nan81

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi