SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Guatemala's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals130755
# data points206
# variables11
chi-square 1.0556e+08
reduced chi-square 541315.549
Akaike info crit. 2730.25750
Bayesian info crit. 2766.86413

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 2.1004e-08 3.352335671386042e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.60000000 0.5542652797021321 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.00201416 0.0041976054584798705 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 0.09903173 3.987012970040701 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 0.01000001 2.601767377724367 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10000000 1.1000000269774464 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02380952 0.023809523809530185 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.03562288 0.023809523854071066 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.00594736 3.2849807309720536e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00485437 0.0048543689320388345 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 0.00129431 0.0008650863530605485 -inf inf False gammaD*0.03505977787687668/(1-0.03505977787687668)
dI 0.00142374 0.0009515950117044241 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 17581476.0 17581476 -inf inf False
N0 1933750.31 345570.43603923114 0.00000000 17581476.0 True
S0 8547886.87 100514.48505346301 0.00000000 8790736.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 0.00000000 245053.9509857681 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 206.000000 206 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
011
111
261
361
481
591
6131
7171
8191
9201
10212
11242
12253
13323
14344
15365
16366
17388
184610
194712
205014
216117
227021
237425
248030
258735
2612641
2713748
2815356
2915664
3016774
3118085
3219697
33214110
34235124
35257140
36289158
37294177
38316198
39342221
40384246
41430273
42473302
43500334
44530368
45557405
46585445
47599488
48644534
49688583
50703637
51730694
52763755
53798820
54832890
55900964
569671043
5710521128
5811141218
5911991314
6013421415
6115181523
6216431638
6317631759
6419121888
6520012024
6621332168
6722652320
6825122481
6927432651
7030542830
7134243018
7237603217
7339543426
7441453646
7543483877
7646074119
7747394374
7850874641
7953364920
8055865213
8157605519
8261545839
8364856174
8467926523
8570556886
8675027266
8778667661
8882218071
8985618498
9089828942
9194919402
9298459879
931027210374
941070610886
951125111415
961186811962
971250912526
981275513108
991314513708
1001376914326
1011454014961
1021481915614
1031561916284
1041582816971
1051639717675
1061693018396
1071740919134
1081809619887
1091901120657
1102007221441
1112129322241
1122250123055
1132324823883
1142397224724
1152478725578
1162541126444
1172665827322
1182761928211
1192859829110
1202935530019
1212974230937
1223087231863
1233207432797
1243293933738
1253380934685
1263804235637
1273867736594
1283903937556
1294022938520
1304113539488
1314219240457
1324328341427
1334449242399
1344505343370
1354505344340
1364505945309
1374760546277
1384882647242
1394978948204
1405097949162
1415130650116
1425154251066
1435236552011
1445350952950
1455433953883
1465527054810
1475618955730
1485660556643
1495698757549
1505796658446
1515908959336
1526028460217
1536142861090
1546231361953
1556256262808
1566294463653
1576384764489
1586488165315
1596598366131
1606694166937
1616785667734
1626818868520
1636853369295
1646965170061
1657071470815
1667185671560
1677292172294
1687367973017
1697391273730
1707407474432
1717489375124
1727566475805
1737635876476
1747704077136
1757748177786
1767768378425
1777782879054
1787872179673
1797962280282
1808030680880
1818100981469
1828165882047
1838190982616
1848217283175
1858268483724
1868292484264
1878366484794
1888434485314
1898515285826
1908544486328
1918568186821
1928662387306
1938744287781
1948793388248
1958887888706
1968970289156
1979009289597
1989026390030
1999096890456
2009174690873
2019240991282
2029309091683
2039374892077
2049396392464
2059418292843
206nan93214
207nan93579
208nan93937
209nan94287
210nan94631
211nan94969
212nan95299
213nan95624
214nan95942
215nan96254
216nan96559
217nan96859
218nan97153
219nan97441

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi