SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Guatemala's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals3765
# data points206
# variables11
chi-square 2.9865e+08
reduced chi-square 1531563.07
Akaike info crit. 2944.50609
Bayesian info crit. 2981.11273

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 3.3523e-05 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55426528 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.00419761 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 3.98701297 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 2.60176738 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.10000003 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02380952 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02380952 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 3.2850e-05 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00485437 0.0048543689320388345 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 8.6509e-04 0.0016515284891165172 -inf inf False gammaD*0.03505977787687668/(1-0.03505977787687668)
dI 9.5160e-04 0.002312139884763124 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 17581476.0 17581476 -inf inf False
N0 345570.436 117727.5 0.00000000 17581476.0 True
S0 100514.485 0 0.00000000 8790736.00 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 245053.951 117725.5 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 206.000000 206 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
112
265
369
4815
5921
61329
71739
81949
92061
102174
112489
1225104
1332121
1434139
1536158
1636179
1738201
1846224
1947248
2050274
2161301
2270329
2374359
2480390
2587422
26126456
27137491
28153528
29156566
30167606
31180647
32196691
33214735
34235782
35257830
36289880
37294933
38316987
393421043
403841101
414301161
424731224
435001289
445301356
455571426
465851498
475991573
486441651
496881732
507031815
517301902
527631992
537982085
548322182
559002282
569672387
5710522495
5811142607
5911992723
6013422843
6115182969
6216433099
6317633233
6419123373
6520013519
6621333670
6722653826
6825123989
6927434158
7030544333
7134244515
7237604705
7339544901
7441455105
7543485317
7646075538
7747395767
7850876004
7953366251
8055866508
8157606774
8261547051
8364857339
8467927637
8570557947
8675028269
8778668603
8882218950
8985619310
9089829683
91949110071
92984510473
931027210889
941070611321
951125111768
961186812232
971250912711
981275513208
991314513722
1001376914253
1011454014802
1021481915369
1031561915955
1041582816560
1051639717183
1061693017826
1071740918488
1081809619169
1091901119870
1102007220591
1112129321331
1122250122090
1132324822869
1142397223667
1152478724484
1162541125319
1172665826173
1182761927045
1192859827933
1202935528839
1212974229761
1223087230698
1233207431650
1243293932616
1253380933595
1263804234586
1273867735589
1283903936602
1294022937624
1304113538654
1314219239692
1324328340735
1334449241784
1344505342836
1354505343891
1364505944947
1374760546003
1384882647059
1394978948113
1405097949163
1415130650210
1425154251251
1435236552287
1445350953315
1455433954335
1465527055346
1475618956347
1485660557338
1495698758317
1505796659285
1515908960239
1526028461181
1536142862109
1546231363023
1556256263922
1566294464806
1576384765675
1586488166528
1596598367365
1606694168187
1616785668992
1626818869781
1636853370554
1646965171311
1657071472052
1667185672776
1677292173484
1687367974176
1697391274853
1707407475513
1717489376158
1727566476788
1737635877403
1747704078003
1757748178588
1767768379159
1777782879716
1787872180259
1797962280788
1808030681304
1818100981807
1828165882297
1838190982775
1848217283241
1858268483695
1868292484138
1878366484569
1888434484990
1898515285400
1908544485800
1918568186189
1928662386569
1938744286939
1948793387300
1958887887653
1968970287996
1979009288331
1989026388658
1999096888977
2009174689289
2019240989593
2029309089890
2039374890179
2049396390462
2059418290739
206nan91009
207nan91273
208nan91531
209nan91784
210nan92030
211nan92272
212nan92508
213nan92739
214nan92965
215nan93187
216nan93404
217nan93616
218nan93825
219nan94029

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi