SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Guatemala's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals62
# data points206
# variables5
chi-square 254977.041
reduced chi-square 1268.54249
Akaike info crit. 1476.93684
Bayesian info crit. 1493.57622

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope -1.99913549 0.34978365 (17.50%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 31.2673866 9.71015356 (31.06%) 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude 3695.45397 74.7591803 (2.02%) 3302 -inf inf True
step_center 132.891397 0.25097195 (0.19%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 54.0748876 0.88089089 (1.63%) 29.285714285714285 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

line_slopestep_amplitude-0.9792
step_amplitudestep_sigma0.9334
line_slopestep_sigma-0.8638
line_slopeline_intercept-0.8558
line_interceptstep_amplitude0.7766
line_interceptstep_sigma0.5973
line_slopestep_center0.2285
line_interceptstep_center-0.1463

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
0032
1130
2128
3127
4125
5123
6121
7119
8117
9115
10114
11112
12110
1318
1417
1515
1613
1712
1810
191-1
201-3
212-4
223-6
233-7
243-9
253-10
263-11
273-12
283-13
295-15
305-16
315-16
325-17
337-18
347-19
357-19
367-20
377-20
388-21
3910-21
4011-21
4111-21
4213-20
4315-20
4415-20
4516-19
4616-18
4716-17
4816-16
4917-15
5017-13
5119-11
5219-9
5321-7
5423-4
5524-2
56241
57264
58268
592712
602916
612920
623025
633330
643536
653841
664348
674554
684861
695168
705576
715884
725993
7363102
7468112
7580122
7690132
77102143
78108155
79116167
80123179
81143192
82158206
83216220
84230235
85252250
86267266
87289282
88316299
89334317
90351335
91367354
92384374
93399394
94418414
95432436
96449458
97483480
98514503
99531527
100547551
101582576
102601602
103623628
104672655
105706682
106727710
107746738
108773767
109817797
110843826
111880857
112920888
113947919
114981951
1151004984
11610531016
11710921050
11811391083
11911721117
12012191151
12112441186
12213021221
12313501256
12414041291
12514431327
12614491363
12714851399
12815021435
12915311471
13015731508
13116321544
13216691581
13316691617
13417341654
13517341690
13617611727
13718351763
13818671799
13919241836
14019591872
14119951907
14220131943
14320371978
14420722013
14521192048
14621682083
14721972117
14822112151
14922222184
15022332217
15122672250
15222962282
15323412314
15423552345
15523792376
15623892407
15724192437
15824672466
15925062495
16025322523
16125802551
16225942578
16326112604
16426302630
16526622656
16626852681
16727092705
16827282728
16927402751
17027602774
17127782796
17227902817
17328042837
17428252857
17528452877
17628522895
17728622913
17828902931
17928972948
18029182964
18129292980
18229492995
18329573010
18429723024
18529843037
18630093050
18730363063
18830763075
18931053086
19031193097
19131243107
19231373117
19331543127
19431703136
19531863144
19632133152
19732293160
19832343167
19932383174
20032463180
20132613187
20232673192
20332853198
20432933203
20533023207
206nan3212
207nan3216
208nan3219
209nan3223
210nan3226
211nan3229
212nan3232

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi