SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Guatemala's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_voigt)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals49
# data points206
# variables4
chi-square 19671.6400
reduced chi-square 97.3843562
Akaike info crit. 947.165765
Bayesian info crit. 960.477270

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 4362.58513 251.494641 (5.76%) 11655.0 -inf inf True
center 96.1157887 4.19077731 (4.36%) 132.41666666666666 -inf inf True
sigma 38.7111419 5.54994362 (14.34%) 52.5 0.00000000 inf True
skew 1.64765536 0.57980876 (35.19%) 0.0 -inf inf True
gamma 38.7111419 5.54994361 (14.34%) 52.5 -inf inf False sigma

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

sigmaskew0.8993
centersigma-0.8932
centerskew-0.8687
amplitudesigma0.7565
amplitudecenter-0.6203
amplitudeskew0.5439

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
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Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi