SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Guatemala's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals158
# data points206
# variables5
chi-square 1.0329e+09
reduced chi-square 5138713.31
Akaike info crit. 3188.11486
Bayesian info crit. 3204.75424

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
line_slope 808.469781 8.53201207 (1.06%) 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 4968.85293 2520.74273 (50.73%) 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -71715.3840 3429.20234 (4.78%) 94181 -inf inf True
step_center 38.8874026 1.55013203 (3.99%) 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 45.0402296 2.44989764 (5.44%) 29.285714285714285 0.00000000 inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

step_amplitudestep_sigma-0.9456
line_interceptstep_amplitude-0.9377
line_interceptstep_center-0.9306
line_interceptstep_sigma0.9071
step_amplitudestep_center0.7737
step_centerstep_sigma-0.7691
line_slopestep_amplitude-0.7439
line_slopestep_sigma0.6514
line_slopeline_intercept0.4727
line_slopestep_center-0.2023

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
01-2994
11-2620
26-2263
36-1922
48-1598
59-1291
613-1001
717-729
819-473
920-234
1021-13
1124192
1225380
1332551
1434706
1536844
1636967
17381073
18461165
19471241
20501303
21611352
22701386
23741408
24801417
25871414
261261400
271371376
281531342
291561298
301671247
311801187
321961121
332141050
34235972
35257891
36289806
37294719
38316630
39342540
40384451
41430362
42473275
43500191
44530111
4555735
46585-36
47599-101
48644-158
49688-208
50703-249
51730-281
52763-303
53798-315
54832-315
55900-303
56967-279
571052-241
581114-190
591199-125
601342-45
61151850
621643161
631763287
641912429
652001587
662133762
672265953
6825121162
6927431387
7030541630
7134241889
7237602166
7339542460
7441452771
7543483098
7646073443
7747393804
7850874182
7953364576
8055864986
8157605412
8261545853
8364856310
8467926781
8570557268
8675027768
8778668283
8882218811
8985619353
9089829907
91949110474
92984511053
931027211643
941070612245
951125112858
961186813482
971250914115
981275514758
991314515411
1001376916073
1011454016743
1021481917421
1031561918107
1041582818801
1051639719502
1061693020210
1071740920924
1081809621644
1091901122370
1102007223102
1112129323838
1122250124580
1132324825326
1142397226077
1152478726832
1162541127591
1172665828353
1182761929119
1192859829888
1202935530660
1212974231434
1223087232212
1233207432992
1243293933774
1253380934558
1263804235344
1273867736132
1283903936922
1294022937713
1304113538506
1314219239300
1324328340096
1334449240892
1344505341690
1354505342488
1364505943288
1374760544088
1384882644889
1394978945691
1405097946493
1415130647296
1425154248099
1435236548903
1445350949708
1455433950513
1465527051318
1475618952123
1485660552929
1495698753735
1505796654541
1515908955348
1526028456155
1536142856962
1546231357769
1556256258576
1566294459383
1576384760191
1586488160998
1596598361806
1606694162614
1616785663422
1626818864230
1636853365038
1646965165846
1657071466654
1667185667462
1677292168270
1687367969078
1697391269886
1707407470695
1717489371503
1727566472311
1737635873120
1747704073928
1757748174736
1767768375545
1777782876353
1787872177162
1797962277970
1808030678778
1818100979587
1828165880395
1838190981204
1848217282012
1858268482821
1868292483629
1878366484437
1888434485246
1898515286054
1908544486863
1918568187671
1928662388480
1938744289288
1948793390097
1958887890905
1968970291714
1979009292522
1989026393331
1999096894139
2009174694947
2019240995756
2029309096564
2039374897373
2049396398181
2059418298990
206nan99798
207nan100607
208nan101415
209nan102224
210nan103032
211nan103841
212nan104649

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi