SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Guatemala's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(split_lorentzian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals31
# data points206
# variables4
chi-square 24005534.1
reduced chi-square 118839.278
Akaike info crit. 2411.17927
Bayesian info crit. 2424.49077

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 154887.816 14395.4600 (9.29%) 542353.1249999999 -inf inf True
center 121.357394 4.76750060 (3.93%) 127 -inf inf True
sigma 22.2334080 4.86916109 (21.90%) 34.166666666666664 0.00000000 inf True
sigma_r 75.6776607 13.0651311 (17.26%) 34.166666666666664 0.00000000 inf True
fwhm 97.9110687 12.4034326 (12.67%) 68.33333333333333 -inf inf False sigma+sigma_r
height 1007.08373 61.1305953 (6.07%) 5052.7714811662245 -inf inf False 2*amplitude/3.1415927/max(0.0000000, (sigma+sigma_r))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma_r0.8522
centersigma0.7990
centersigma_r-0.5867
sigmasigma_r-0.3188
amplitudecenter-0.3076

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
0133
1033
2534
3034
4235
5135
6436
7437
8237
9138
10139
11339
12140
13741
14241
15242
16043
17244
18845
19145
20346
211147
22948
23449
24650
25751
263952
271153
281654
29355
301156
311357
321659
331860
342161
352263
363264
37565
382267
392668
404270
414672
424373
432775
443077
452779
462881
471483
484585
494487
501589
512791
523394
533596
543499
5568102
5667104
5785107
5862110
5985114
60143117
61176120
62125124
63120128
64149132
6589136
66132140
67132144
68247149
69231154
70311159
71370164
72336170
73194176
74191182
75203188
76259195
77132202
78348210
79249218
80250226
81174234
82394244
83331253
84307263
85263274
86447285
87364297
88355310
89340323
90421337
91509352
92354367
93427383
94434401
95545419
96617438
97641458
98246479
99390501
100624524
101771548
102279573
103800599
104209626
105569653
106533682
107479711
108687740
109915769
1101061799
1111221828
1121208856
113747882
114724908
115815931
116624952
1171247970
118961985
119979996
1207571003
1213871007
12211301007
12312021007
1248651006
1258701005
12642331003
1276351002
128362999
1291190997
130906994
1311057991
1321091988
1331209984
134561980
1350975
1366971
1372546966
1381221961
139963955
1401190949
141327944
142236937
143823931
1441144924
145830918
146931911
147919903
148416896
149382889
150979881
1511123873
1521195865
1531144857
154885849
155249841
156382833
157903824
1581034816
1591102807
160958799
161915790
162332782
163345773
1641118764
1651063756
1661142747
1671065738
168758730
169233721
170162713
171819704
172771696
173694687
174682679
175441670
176202662
177145654
178893645
179901637
180684629
181703621
182649613
183251605
184263598
185512590
186240582
187740575
188680567
189808560
190292553
191237545
192942538
193819531
194491524
195945517
196824510
197390504
198171497
199705491
200778484
201663478
202681472
203658465
204215459
205219453
206nan447
207nan442
208nan436
209nan430
210nan425
211nan419
212nan414

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi