SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Bahia's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(students_t)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals982
# data points89
# variables3
chi-square 7552486.34
reduced chi-square 87819.6087
Akaike info crit. 1016.03884
Bayesian info crit. 1023.50475

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 91134465.5 1.8836e+11 (206683.40%) 111408.0 -inf inf True
center 92.6387562 2.64658272 (2.86%) 89 -inf inf True
sigma 1.4517e-04 0.30378595 (209265.84%) 14.666666666666666 0.00000000 100.000000 True
height 548963.707 5.6034e+08 (102071.53%) 43694.764284272744 -inf inf False amplitude*gamfcn((sigma+1)/2)/(sqrt(sigma*pi)*gamfcn(sigma/2))
fwhm 0.04173179 43.6534789 (104604.85%) 2.329771415935231 -inf inf False 2*sqrt(2**(2/(sigma+1))*sigma-sigma)

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudesigma-1.0000
centersigma0.9341
amplitudecenter-0.9341

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
0171
1172
2073
3074
4075
5075
6076
7077
8078
9079
10080
11181
12082
132783
14384
15885
16886
171487
181389
19890
202091
211192
221294
232795
242296
253798
263399
2721101
2815102
2950104
3069105
3130107
3225109
3341111
3462113
3545115
3631117
3738119
3850121
3936123
4048126
41144128
42108130
43134133
4437136
45111139
46148142
47155145
48145148
49173151
50119155
51128159
52145163
53186167
54106171
55205176
56234180
57182185
58228191
59239196
60306202
61261209
62227216
63290223
64356231
65384239
66250248
67396258
68343268
69408279
701173292
71186305
72129320
73138336
742432354
75184375
76744397
77616422
78443451
79899484
80305523
81362568
82504621
83893686
84954765
85709865
86766995
875061172
8825321425
89nan1816
90nan2505
91nan4033
92nan10347
93nan18290
94nan4855
95nan2799

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi