SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Argentina's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals418
# data points214
# variables11
chi-square 9.4212e+12
reduced chi-square 4.6410e+10
Akaike info crit. 5266.71471
Bayesian info crit. 5303.74045

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 0.67567465 1.2532940426024375e-06 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55311526 0.5593794507896841 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.99942747 0.01707853934844191 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 3.71527661 2.3893415592800817 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 3.91657195 1.7003094581933949 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.11959573 1.2202677940105473 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02409927 0.029491271907258455 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02381048 0.02428483228131753 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 0.00178767 2.6234228934218784e-06 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00467290 0.004672897196261682 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 6.4848e-04 0.0006614002710004919 -inf inf False gammaD*0.026513032363238917/(1-0.026513032363238917)
dI 7.2604e-04 0.0008070854496517485 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 44780675.0 44780675 -inf inf False
N0 2213458.39 11441920.583900284 0.00000000 44780675.0 True
S0 11975330.7 1695561.2029884735 0.00000000 22390335.5 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 0.00000000 9746357.38091181 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 214.000000 214 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
011
121013
283153
396196
4129951
51914260
63118995
73424052
84529345
95634804
106540375
117946009
129751671
1312857332
1415862966
1522568555
1626674084
1730179541
1838784916
1950290204
2058995398
21690100495
22745105493
23820110388
24966115182
25966119872
261133124460
271133128946
281265133331
291451137616
301554141803
311628145893
321715149888
331795153789
341894157598
351975161317
362137164948
372203168493
382272171954
392432175332
402432178629
412560181848
422658184989
432828188055
442930191048
453020193969
463132196820
473276199602
483423202318
493423204968
503767207555
513767210079
523990212543
534114214947
544272217294
554415219584
564519221820
574668224001
584770226130
594874228208
605007230236
615195232215
625358234147
635598236032
645763237872
655776239668
666021241420
676550243131
686866244800
697121246429
707466248019
717792249571
727792251086
738358252564
748796254007
759270255415
769918256789
7710636258130
7811340259439
7912063260717
8012615261964
8113215263181
8213920264369
8314689265528
8415406266660
8516201267765
8616838268842
8717402269895
8818306270922
8919255271924
9019255272902
9121024273857
9222007274789
9322781275699
9423607276586
9524748277453
9625987278299
9727360279124
9828751279930
9930282280717
10031564281485
10132772282234
10234146282965
10335539283679
10435539284376
10539557285056
10641191285720
10742772286369
10844918287001
10944918287619
11049838288221
11152444288810
11252444289384
11357731289945
11457731290492
11562255291026
11664517291548
11767184292057
11869928292554
11972773293039
12072773293512
12175363293974
12277802294425
12380434294866
12483413295296
12587017295716
12690680296125
12794047296525
12897496296916
129100153297297
130103252297669
131106897298033
132111147298387
133114770298734
134119288299072
135122511299402
136126742299724
137130761300039
138136105300346
139141887300645
140148014300938
141153507301224
142162513301503
143162513301776
144167403302042
145173342302301
146178983302555
147185360302802
148191289303044
149196530303280
150201906303511
151206730303736
152213522303955
153220669304170
154228182304379
155235664304584
156241798304784
157246486304979
158253855305169
159260898305355
160268561305537
161276059305714
162282424305887
163289087306057
164294556306222
165299113306383
166305953306541
167312646306694
168320871306845
169329030306991
170336789307135
171342141307275
172350854307411
173359625307545
174370175307675
175380279307803
176392009307927
177401226308049
178408413308167
179417722308283
180428226308396
181439159308507
182451185308615
183461869308721
184471793308824
185478779308924
186487994309023
187500021309119
188512280309213
189524185309305
190535690309394
191546468309482
192555524309567
193565432309651
194577325309733
195588999309812
196601700309890
197613645309967
198622921310041
199640134310114
200652161310185
201664799310254
202678266310322
203691222310388
204702471310453
205711312310517
206723119310579
207736596310639
208750988310698
209764989310756
210779676310813
211790805310868
212798473310922
213809715310975
214nan311026
215nan311077
216nan311126
217nan311174
218nan311221
219nan311267
220nan311312
221nan311356
222nan311399
223nan311441
224nan311483
225nan311523
226nan311562
227nan311601

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi