SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Argentina's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageOptimization terminated successfully.

Model Result

Fit Statistics

fitting methodPowell
# function evals21658
# data points214
# variables11
chi-square 5.5187e+09
reduced chi-square 27185597.5
Akaike info crit. 3674.00156
Bayesian info crit. 3711.02730

Variables

name value initial value min max vary expression
beta 1.2533e-06 1.2e-05 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
rho 0.55937945 0.55 0.55000000 0.60000000 True
p 0.01707854 0.001 1.0000e-03 1.00000000 True
epsilonA 2.38934156 0.01 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
epsilonI 1.70030946 0.2 0.01000000 4.00000000 True
cD 1.22026779 1.4 1.10000000 1.70000000 True
gammaI 0.02949127 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
gammaD 0.02428483 0.045454545454545456 0.02380952 0.07142857 True
delta 2.6234e-06 0.0001 0.00000000 1.00000000 True
theta 0.42105263 0.42105263157894735 -inf inf False
sigma 0.19607843 0.19607843137254904 -inf inf False
lambda0 0.00467290 0.004672897196261682 -inf inf False
gammaA 0.07142857 0.07142857142857142 -inf inf False
dD 6.6140e-04 0.001237959905737899 -inf inf False gammaD*0.026513032363238917/(1-0.026513032363238917)
dI 8.0709e-04 0.0017331438680330585 -inf inf False cD*dD
pop 44780675.0 44780675 -inf inf False
N0 11441920.6 1012143.75 0.00000000 44780675.0 True
S0 1695561.20 0 0.00000000 22390335.5 True
R0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
E0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
A0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
I0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
D0 1.00000000 1 -inf inf False
M0 0.00000000 0 -inf inf False
Q0 9746357.38 1012141.75 0.00000000 inf False N0-S0-E0-A0-I0-D0-R0-M0
day 214.000000 214 -inf inf False

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
011
124
2811
3922
41238
51957
63181
734108
845139
956174
1065213
1179256
1297303
13128353
14158408
15225466
16266528
17301593
18387663
19502737
20589814
21690896
22745982
238201072
249661166
259661265
2611331368
2711331475
2812651587
2914511704
3015541825
3116281951
3217152083
3317952219
3418942361
3519752508
3621372661
3722032819
3822722983
3924323153
4024323329
4125603512
4226583701
4328283897
4429304100
4530204309
4631324526
4732764751
4834234983
4934235224
5037675472
5137675729
5239905995
5341146270
5442726554
5544156848
5645197152
5746687465
5847707790
5948748125
6050078472
6151958830
6253589201
6355989583
6457639979
65577610387
66602110810
67655011246
68686611697
69712112163
70746612645
71779213143
72779213657
73835814189
74879614738
75927015306
76991815892
771063616498
781134017125
791206317772
801261518441
811321519132
821392019847
831468920585
841540621348
851620122137
861683822951
871740223793
881830624663
891925525562
901925526492
912102427452
922200728444
932278129469
942360730529
952474831624
962598732755
972736033924
982875135132
993028236380
1003156437669
1013277239002
1023414640378
1033553941800
1043553943269
1053955744786
1064119146354
1074277247973
1084491849645
1094491851372
1104983853156
1115244454998
1125244456900
1135773158864
1145773160891
1156225562984
1166451765145
1176718467375
1186992869676
1197277372051
1207277374501
1217536377029
1227780279637
1238043482327
1248341385101
1258701787962
1269068090911
1279404793951
1289749697084
129100153100313
130103252103640
131106897107067
132111147110597
133114770114232
134119288117974
135122511121826
136126742125791
137130761129869
138136105134065
139141887138379
140148014142815
141153507147374
142162513152060
143162513156873
144167403161817
145173342166893
146178983172102
147185360177449
148191289182933
149196530188556
150201906194321
151206730200229
152213522206281
153220669212479
154228182218824
155235664225317
156241798231959
157246486238750
158253855245691
159260898252783
160268561260027
161276059267421
162282424274966
163289087282663
164294556290509
165299113298505
166305953306650
167312646314943
168320871323382
169329030331967
170336789340694
171342141349563
172350854358572
173359625367717
174370175376997
175380279386408
176392009395948
177401226405613
178408413415401
179417722425307
180428226435328
181439159445459
182451185455698
183461869466039
184471793476478
185478779487010
186487994497631
187500021508337
188512280519121
189524185529979
190535690540906
191546468551896
192555524562945
193565432574047
194577325585196
195588999596388
196601700607616
197613645618876
198622921630162
199640134641469
200652161652791
201664799664124
202678266675461
203691222686799
204702471698131
205711312709453
206723119720760
207736596732047
208750988743310
209764989754544
210779676765745
211790805776909
212798473788031
213809715799107
214nan810135
215nan821109
216nan832027
217nan842886
218nan853682
219nan864411
220nan875073
221nan885663
222nan896179
223nan906620
224nan916981
225nan927263
226nan937463
227nan947578

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi