SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Argentina's parameters

Information

Success statusFalse
Abort statusTrue
Fit messageTolerance seems to be too small. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals12000
# data points214
# variables5
chi-square 8.8890e+08
reduced chi-square 4253108.49
Akaike info crit. 3271.25705
Bayesian info crit. 3288.08693

Variables

name value initial value min max vary
line_slope 40004.4291 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 51252484.7 0 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -1.0762e+08 21468 -inf inf True
step_center 63.9422432 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 1516.60608 30.428571428571427 0.00000000 inf True

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc deathsModel Acc deaths
00885
10924
20960
31995
411027
511058
611086
721112
821137
921159
1021179
1121198
1221215
1331230
1431243
1541254
1641264
1741272
1861278
1981283
20121287
21171288
22191289
23201287
24241285
25241281
26311275
27341269
28371261
29431251
30461241
31531229
32601216
33651202
34791188
35821172
36891154
37951136
38981118
391051098
401091077
411151055
421221033
431321010
44134986
45142962
46151936
47159911
48165884
49167857
50185830
51186802
52197773
53207745
54214715
55218686
56225656
57237626
58246596
59260565
60264534
61273503
62282472
63293441
64300410
65300379
66305348
67319317
68329286
69353255
70356225
71363194
72366164
73382134
74393105
7540376
7641647
7743319
78445-9
79452-37
80467-64
81484-90
82500-116
83508-141
84520-165
85528-189
86539-212
87556-234
88569-256
89583-276
90588-296
91632-315
92648-333
93664-350
94693-366
95717-380
96735-394
97765-407
98785-418
99815-429
100833-438
101854-446
102878-452
103913-457
104929-461
105979-464
106992-465
1071011-464
1081043-462
1091049-459
1101085-454
1111124-447
1121167-439
1131207-429
1141217-418
1151280-404
1161307-389
1171351-372
1181385-353
1191437-333
1201453-310
1211490-286
1221523-259
1231602-231
1241654-200
1251707-167
1261749-132
1271810-96
1281818-56
1291903-15
130192629
131205075
1322112123
1332133173
1342204226
1352246282
1362373340
1372373400
1382506463
1392617529
1402722597
1412847668
1422939741
1432956817
1443082896
1453200978
14633111062
14734661150
14835581240
14936121333
15036671429
15138631528
15240091631
15341351736
15442911844
15544501955
15645562070
15746342188
15847852309
15950882433
16052462560
16154282691
16255652825
16356572963
16457503104
16558773249
16661143397
16764063548
16865673703
16967953862
17068484024
17170794190
17274024360
17376614534
17479444711
17581294892
17683055077
17784015266
17884985459
17987305655
18089715856
18191556061
18294686269
18396856482
18498076699
18599126920
186101797145
187104577375
188107137609
189109947847
190112068089
191113078336
192114128587
193117108842
194119109102
195122299367
196124919636
197127059909
1981290910188
1991348210470
2001395210758
2011437611050
2021476611347
2031520811649
2041554311955
2051574912266
2061611312583
2071651912904
2081693713230
2092028813561
2102059913897
2112079514238
2122101814584
2132146814935
214nan15291
215nan15653
216nan16020
217nan16392
218nan16769
219nan17151
220nan17539

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi