SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Argentina's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(pearson7)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals866
# data points214
# variables4
chi-square 2862511.22
reduced chi-square 13631.0058
Akaike info crit. 2041.26404
Bayesian info crit. 2054.72794

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary expression
amplitude 465090.094 20015260.0 (4303.52%) 356881.5 -inf inf True
center 209.935580 0.11594699 (0.06%) 210 -inf inf True
sigma 0.20709988 0.08054151 (38.89%) 35.5 0.00000000 inf True
expon 0.50156284 0.06802992 (13.56%) 1.5 -inf 100.000000 True
fwhm 0.71535053 0.20908354 (29.23%) 54.41588649440247 -inf inf False sqrt(2**(1/expon)-1)*2*sigma
height 3502.14277 641.284270 (18.31%) 5026.5 -inf inf False amplitude * gamfcn(expon)/max(2.220446049250313e-16, (gamfcn(0.5)*gamfcn(expon-0.5)*sigma))

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudeexpon-1.0000
sigmaexpon0.8371
amplitudesigma-0.8363
centersigma0.5724
centerexpon0.1328
amplitudecenter-0.1324

Observation

Days from the first infectedDeathsModel Deaths
003
103
203
313
403
503
603
713
804
904
1004
1104
1204
1314
1404
1514
1604
1704
1824
1924
2044
2154
2224
2314
2444
2504
2674
2734
2834
2964
3034
3174
3274
3354
34144
3534
3674
3764
3834
3974
4044
4164
4274
43104
4424
4584
4694
4784
4864
4924
50184
5114
52114
53105
5475
5545
5675
57125
5895
59145
6045
6195
6295
63115
6475
6505
6655
67145
68105
69245
7035
7175
7235
73165
74115
75105
76135
77175
78125
7975
80155
81176
82166
8386
84126
8586
86116
87176
88136
89146
9056
91446
92166
93166
94296
95246
96186
97306
98206
99306
100186
101217
102247
103357
104167
105507
106137
107197
108327
10967
110367
111397
112437
113407
114107
115637
116278
117448
118348
119528
120168
121378
122338
123798
124528
125538
126428
127619
12889
129859
130239
1311249
132629
133219
134719
1354210
13612710
137010
13813310
13911110
14010510
14112510
1429210
1431711
14412611
14511811
14611111
14715511
1489212
1495412
1505512
15119612
15214612
15312613
15415613
15515913
15610613
1577813
15815114
15930314
16015814
16118215
16213715
1639215
1649316
16512716
16623716
16729217
16816117
16922817
1705318
17123118
17232319
17325919
17428320
17518520
17617621
1779622
1789722
17923223
18024124
18118425
18231326
18321727
18412228
18510529
18626730
18727831
18825633
18928134
19021236
19110138
19210540
19329842
19420045
19531948
19626251
19721455
19820460
19957365
20047072
20142480
20239090
203442103
204335121
205206145
206364182
207406244
208418370
2093351753
2103113344
211196665
212223347
213450234
214nan177
215nan142
216nan118
217nan101
218nan89
219nan79
220nan71

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi