SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Argentina's parameters

Information

Success statusFalse
Abort statusTrue
Fit messageTolerance seems to be too small. Could not estimate error-bars.

Model Result

Model

(Model(step, prefix='step_', form='erf') + Model(linear, prefix='line_'))

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals12000
# data points214
# variables5
chi-square 4.4173e+11
reduced chi-square 2.1135e+09
Akaike info crit. 4599.87025
Bayesian info crit. 4616.70013

Variables

name value initial value min max vary
line_slope 527023.311 0 -inf inf True
line_intercept 4.4493e+08 1 -inf inf True
step_amplitude -9.3751e+08 809714 -inf inf True
step_center 45.2165352 90 -inf inf True
step_sigma 1002.48597 30.428571428571427 0.00000000 inf True

Observation

Days from the first infectedAcc InfectedModel Acc Infected
0115245
1215693
2816095
3916451
41216763
51917032
63117259
73417444
84517590
95617696
106517765
117917796
129717792
1312817753
1415817680
1522517574
1626617437
1730117269
1838717071
1950216845
2058916591
2169016311
2274516005
2382015675
2496615322
2596614946
26113314550
27113314133
28126513697
29145113243
30155412771
31162812284
32171511782
33179511266
34189410738
35197510197
3621379646
3722039085
3822728515
3924327938
4024327354
4125606765
4226586172
4328285575
4429304976
4530204375
4631323774
4732763174
4834232576
4934231981
5037671390
513767804
523990224
534114-349
544272-914
554415-1470
564519-2015
574668-2549
584770-3071
594874-3579
605007-4073
615195-4551
625358-5012
635598-5456
645763-5882
655776-6287
666021-6672
676550-7035
686866-7376
697121-7692
707466-7983
717792-8248
727792-8487
738358-8697
748796-8878
759270-9029
769918-9148
7710636-9236
7811340-9289
7912063-9309
8012615-9293
8113215-9241
8213920-9151
8314689-9022
8415406-8854
8516201-8645
8616838-8395
8717402-8102
8818306-7765
8919255-7383
9019255-6955
9121024-6481
9222007-5958
9322781-5386
9423607-4765
9524748-4092
9625987-3367
9727360-2589
9828751-1756
9930282-869
1003156475
101327721077
102341462136
103355393255
104355394435
105395575676
106411916980
107427728347
108449189779
1094491811277
1104983812841
1115244414473
1125244416174
1135773117944
1145773119786
1156225521699
1166451723685
1176718425745
1186992827881
1197277330092
1207277332380
1217536334746
1227780237192
1238043439718
1248341342324
1258701745013
1269068047786
1279404750642
1289749653584
12910015356612
13010325259728
13110689762932
13211114766225
13311477069609
13411928873084
13512251176652
13612674280313
13713076184069
13813610587920
13914188791868
14014801495914
141153507100058
142162513104302
143162513108647
144167403113093
145173342117642
146178983122295
147185360127052
148191289131916
149196530136886
150201906141964
151206730147150
152213522152447
153220669157854
154228182163374
155235664169006
156241798174752
157246486180613
158253855186590
159260898192684
160268561198896
161276059205227
162282424211677
163289087218249
164294556224943
165299113231759
166305953238700
167312646245766
168320871252957
169329030260276
170336789267723
171342141275298
172350854283004
173359625290841
174370175298810
175380279306911
176392009315147
177401226323518
178408413332025
179417722340668
180428226349450
181439159358371
182451185367432
183461869376633
184471793385977
185478779395464
186487994405094
187500021414870
188512280424791
189524185434860
190535690445076
191546468455441
192555524465956
193565432476622
194577325487440
195588999498410
196601700509535
197613645520814
198622921532249
199640134543840
200652161555590
201664799567498
202678266579566
203691222591794
204702471604184
205711312616737
206723119629453
207736596642334
208750988655380
209764989668592
210779676681973
211790805695521
212798473709239
213809715723127
214nan737187
215nan751419
216nan765824
217nan780403
218nan795158
219nan810088
220nan825196

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi