SARS-CoV-2 Models

Info

The graphics below present the current evolution of the COVID-19 in the heretofore region, and they depicted data provided by the European CDC, the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and forecast models created by us. The models build on our research of statistical regression, ordinary differential equation systems, and social network dynamics.

We are publishing this information to share our knowledge about the pandemic and exchange insights with our research peers and reviewers. This information provided as is, and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. The authors do not guarantee validity, accuracy, or correctness as any implication or future result.

Argentina's parameters

Information

Success statusTrue
Abort statusFalse
Fit messageFit succeeded.

Model Result

Model

Model(skewed_gaussian)

Fit Statistics

fitting methodleastsq
# function evals106
# data points214
# variables4
chi-square 2.8182e+08
reduced chi-square 1341979.59
Akaike info crit. 3023.42861
Bayesian info crit. 3036.89252

Variables

name value standard error relative error initial value min max vary
amplitude 946436.758 168524.655 (17.81%) 1833184.5 -inf inf True
center 224.689506 11.0584826 (4.92%) 192.3 -inf inf True
sigma 57.7585492 4.91522751 (8.51%) 35.5 0.00000000 inf True
gamma -6.65725075 7.28870095 (109.49%) 0.0 -inf inf True

Correlations (unreported correlations are < 0.100)

amplitudecenter0.9957
amplitudegamma0.9787
centergamma0.9772
amplitudesigma0.9716
centersigma0.9702
sigmagamma0.9232

Observation

Days from the first infectedInfectedModel Infected
017
117
268
318
439
579
61210
7311
81111
91112
10913
111414
121815
133116
143017
156718
164119
173520
188622
1911523
208725
2110126
225528
237529
2414631
25033
2616735
27037
2813240
2918642
3010345
317447
328750
338053
349956
358159
3616263
376667
386970
3916074
40079
4112883
429888
4317093
4410298
4590103
46112109
47144115
48147121
490128
50344135
510142
52223150
53124158
54158166
55143175
56104184
57149193
58102203
59104214
60133224
61188236
62163248
63240260
64165273
6513286
66245300
67529315
68316330
69255346
70345362
71326379
720397
73566416
74438435
75474455
76648476
77718497
78704520
79723543
80552567
81600592
82705618
83769645
84717673
85795702
86637732
87564763
88904795
89949828
900862
911769898
92983934
93774972
948261011
9511411051
9612391093
9713731135
9813911179
9915311225
10012821272
10112081320
10213741370
10313931421
10401473
10540181527
10616341583
10715811640
10821461699
10901759
11049201821
11126061884
11201949
11352872016
11402084
11545242154
11622622226
11726672299
11827442374
11928452451
12002529
12125902610
12224392692
12326322775
12429792861
12536042948
12636633037
12733673128
12834493220
12926573314
13030993410
13136453508
13242503607
13336233708
13445183811
13532233916
13642314022
13740194130
13853444239
13957824350
14061274462
14154934576
14290064692
14304809
14448904927
14559395047
14656415169
14763775291
14859295415
14952415540
15053765666
15148245794
15267925922
15371476052
15475136182
15574826314
15661346446
15746886579
15873696713
15970436848
16076636983
16174987118
16263657255
16366637391
16454697528
16545577665
16668407802
16766937939
16882258077
16981598214
17077598351
17153528488
17287138624
17387718760
174105508895
175101049030
176117309164
17792179298
17871879430
17993099562
180105049692
181109339821
182120269949
1831068410076
184992410201
185698610325
186921510447
1871202710567
1881225910685
1891190510802
1901150510916
1911077811028
192905611138
193990811246
1941189311351
1951167411453
1961270111551
1971194511647
198927611738
1991721311825
2001202711906
2011263811981
2021346712049
2031295612108
2041124912157
205884112193
2061180712214
2071347712217
2081439212199
2091400112156
2101468712086
2111112911984
212766811846
2131124211670
214nan11452
215nan11189
216nan10881
217nan10526
218nan10125
219nan9680
220nan9195

Contacts

Diego Carvalho 

Rafael Barbastefano 

Dayse Pastore 

Maria Clara Lippi